Holiday Retail Sales: Why Prognostication Breeds Procrastination

By Doug Stephens

It’s that time of year again…prognostication time.  The time when retail industry experts far and wide weigh in with their respective projections for sales for the upcoming holiday season.  For my part, I’m sitting this one out.

I’ve resolved to stay silent this year, largely because I don’t think it really matters what incremental difference we see in sales performance this year versus last.   And I don’t say that lightly, because I recognize fully that the livelihoods of countless retail workers hang in the balance.  What I mean is this; I don’t think sales being up, down or sideways has any bearing on the deeper realities this industry is confronting.  Would a 0.3 percent year on year lift have prevented Blockbuster’s demise?  Would a better than expected quarter have helped Borders…or Linens n’ Things?  Would a slight rise in sales have saved the recording industry? Probably not.

In fact, a strong-ish holiday season may only serve to cover up the cracks in the foundation.  I will go so far as to say that anything that approximates good news might actually encourage many retailers to procrastinate in their efforts to prepare for the future – a very different looking future.

We are sitting on the fault line of seismic shifts in media, consumerism, global economics, technology and demographics.  And not only is change a reality, it’s also taking place faster than many businesses can keep pace with.  The shifts that are happening today will long outlast the current economic ice-age.

Some might say that this is a revolution you either lead or die in.  I prefer the glass half-full view – that these changes hold incredible opportunities for retailers who are willing to understand and act on them now. But that can only happen once you question your current business model and value proposition; once the tension for change sets in.  And as long as the intravenous drip of incremental sales improvement continues, too many retailers will remain satisfied clinging to life.

I’d rather be a proponent of change than mere survival.